Did I Waste My Money?

[capnjuan]

... I don’t know what the holy grails of Guild are...what’ s the most sought-after and hardest to find?

Hi wontox; not sure if there's a list but the 1950's maple F20 and the nearly-mythical F612 would probably qualify ... not sure about sought-after but they're pretty hard to find.

 

[chazmo]

And, keep in mind that "hardest to find" does not necessarily make it valuable. There are one-offs that are not as valuable as some models that were in production, possibly because the value of the instrument is not just in its exclusivity.

Then there's the factor of "which celebrity used this model."...

It's sure complicated.

I think frono's earlier observation is very astute... since you can't readily get ebay (or other) "auction" prices at your fingertips, that makes the handgun blue book far more relevant than with guitars.

 

[Dadaist]

... I don’t know what the holy grails of Guild are...what’ s the most sought-after and hardest to find?

Hi wontox; not sure if there's a list but the 1950's maple F20 and the nearly-mythical F612 would probably qualify ... not sure about sought-after but they're pretty hard to find.

The good Capt'n is right, there's probably a short list of Holy Grails and as someone mentioned, not every vintage Guild would be on that list. Probably the carved heel guitars....D-80C/D-100C
and the JF-100C series...Artist Award guitars....and of course the seldom seen (make that never?) elusive F-612.
Though it is interesting that AG Blue Book actually gives a value and description for the F-612....I'm curious what they were using as comps to arrive at the estimate? Has anyone ever even seen one come up for sale or auction?

David

 

[fronobulax]

Since we have had the conversation before - being rare does not make it valuable - and which Guilds are most sought after - I wonder if we can add a new spin? According to Don's (or anyone else's) copy of the appropriate Blue Book what are the five Guilds with the highest price?

 

[Don]

Much as I'd like to look that up I cannot. I'm out of town until the 24th. Someone else will have to admit to owning one and do the honors.

 

[killdeer43]

Much as I'd like to look that up I cannot. I'm out of town until the 24th. Someone else will have to admit to owning one and do the honors.

If you're referring to the basic Blue Book of Acoustic Guitars, 11th Edition, I'll admit to owning one, but I'm away from home until the 23rd....although, I could get there for emergencies!
Does this qualify? :shock:

Joe

 

[Dadaist]

According to both the 12th Edition of the Blue Book and the 2011 VG Price Guide
the top five most valuable acoustic Guilds are: (drum roll....please?)

'65-'69 F-50R $5250

'69-'72 F-612 $4000

'94-'99 JF-100C $4000

'90-'99 D-100C $3600

'63-'68 D-50 $3400

This was based on mint 10/10, guitars. The Blue Book in general, had higher prices overall than the VG Guide.
The VG Guide seemed much more conservative in its' estimates.

My best guess would make a Brazilian, F-612 bring more than the F-50R based on numbers produced, as they made very few in comparison to the hundreds of Jumbos.

Again, for all you Guys out there polishing your '60s F-50s remember that it's worth only what some other Guy is willing to buy it from you....on the day you decide to let it go.

David

 

[capnjuan]

Hi David: thanks for going to the trouble. I was going to do this exercise but have an older edition. Owners of these more valuable models can take heart; despite a couple of tough years for the economy, the value estimates for the high-end models have gone up.

I can't help but wonder what the numbers represent. Since so few of these models exists and change hands infrequently ... is that what a dealer might charge if he had one to sell? Say there were a Blue Book of Animals; Lions, Tigers, Giraffes and so on. How would that Blue Book handle Panda Bears for example; there aren't many of those around either? What about a Pig-In-A-Poke; what should they go for ... one in excellent condition?

Thanks again. J

 

[Dadaist]

Hi David: thanks for going to the trouble. I was going to do this exercise but have an older edition. Owners of these more valuable models can take heart; despite a couple of tough years for the economy, the value estimates for the high-end models have gone up.

I can't help but wonder what the numbers represent. Since so few of these models exists and change hands infrequently ... is that what a dealer might charge if he had one to sell? Say there were a Blue Book of Animals; Lions, Tigers, Giraffes and so on. How would that Blue Book handle Panda Bears for example; there aren't many of those around either? What about a Pig-In-A-Poke; what should they go for ... one in excellent condition?

Thanks again. J

John,
The old adage about collecting/investing only in things, in this case Guild Guitars, that you would enjoy keeping or stuck with.....should be taken to heart. Buying something only because it's potentially "valuable" is probably not the way to go....and usually ends in tears. Yours.

The numbers in both books probably represent retail prices, though when I look at some of the prices on say, Gbase, you wonder what Alternate Universe you'd have to beam to, as their prices are Not Of This World.

Lions, Tigers and the occasional Panda aside, everything goes in cycles....weather, fashion and guitar values. The last two years saw demand diminish, as supply.....because some folks didn't adhere to the aforementioned suggestion, flood the market with guitars that were nice, but not necessarily valuable.

Once, when I use to buy antiques for design clients (you can live vicariously...using Oth Ppls Money) the Old Guys....who were younger than I am now, use to tell me to buy the absolute best that you can afford, that craftsmanship and exclusivity will trump anything else. Quality never goes out of style.

I imagine that a '65 F-50R would be considered a Blue Chip investment, and anyway, it would be a lot more interesting and useful than a shiny metal ingot, or some certificates.

David

 

[chazmo]

... I imagine that a '65 F-50R would be considered a Blue Chip investment, and anyway, it would be a lot more interesting and useful than a shiny metal ingot, or some certificates.

David

Far more interesting, yes, but far less liquid.

Well, unless you have a glass of beer on the side.

 

[Dadaist]

... I imagine that a '65 F-50R would be considered a Blue Chip investment, and anyway, it would be a lot more interesting and useful than a shiny metal ingot, or some certificates.

David

Far more interesting, yes, but far less liquid.

Well, unless you have a glass of beer on the side.

Chazmo,
As someone who has both a Braz, '60s F-50 and a EIR F-50....do you think that
the latter is worth $2200 less, according to the Blue Book? Their Liquidity...would depend on who you're talking to....and who's supplying the beer.

David

 

[fronobulax]

I can't help but wonder what the numbers represent.

A lot of times, price guides publish the methodology. When I was following Civil War books, the guide was based upon dealer catalogs, tweaked by the compiler to adjust for condition of the book. It was understood that dealer catalogs did not represent actual sales, but unlike eBay, asking prices were pretty much the sale price so it was a reasonable compilation.

 

[fronobulax]

I imagine that a '65 F-50R would be considered a Blue Chip investment, and anyway, it would be a lot more interesting and useful than a shiny metal ingot, or some certificates.

You are aware of the story about the investor who invested in gold coins. Liked them so much, he'd bring them out and use them as chips in poker games. Always redemeed them. When the time came to sell them his best offer was about 50% of what he expected because of their condition. Scratches and nicks from being in the pot.

I'm a firm believer that investments in "collectibles" and other objects with practical utility need to be made with care and the object in question should never be used. Otherwise calling it an investment is wishful thinking at best and delusional BS otherwise.

 

[capnjuan]

I can't help but wonder what the numbers represent.

It was understood that dealer catalogs did not represent actual sales, but unlike eBay, asking prices were pretty much the sale price so it was a reasonable compilation.

Chances are, the Blue Book itself explains what the numbers are and how they're gathered. It's easier for me to be cynical than it is actually read what's written in the book. I've had some experience dealing with 'industry standards' in pricing where the standards - not surprisingly - were generated by trade associations to which the sellers/contractors belonged ... along the lines of:

Seller: "Gotta charge you this much"
Buyer: "You're out of your mind ... that's outrageous"
Seller: "Well, if you look on page X of our 'industry standard' price guidelines, you'll see that my price is reasonable ...."

Transposed:

Guitar Seller: "Gotta charge you this much"
Guitar Buyer: "You're out of your mind ... that's outrageous"
Guitar Seller: "Well, if you look on page X of the Blue Book, you'll see that my price is reasonable ...."

I'm sure the Blue Book is also relied upon in insurance and other matters where the value of a guitar is in dispute. I'm not saying it's collusive or that they're just making the numbers up; only that nobody ought to lose sight of the fact that it's in the collective interests of sellers to support the highest prices possible ... and ... I'll go read the section on data acquisition and compilation.

Guitars as investments: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[Dadaist]

I imagine that a '65 F-50R would be considered a Blue Chip investment, and anyway, it would be a lot more interesting and useful than a shiny metal ingot, or some certificates.

You are aware of the story about the investor who invested in gold coins. Liked them so much, he'd bring them out and use them as chips in poker games. Always redemeed them. When the time came to sell them his best offer was about 50% of what he expected because of their condition. Scratches and nicks from being in the pot.

I'm a firm believer that investments in "collectibles" and other objects with practical utility need to be made with care and the object in question should never be used. Otherwise calling it an investment is wishful thinking at best and delusional BS otherwise.

Excellent point. Delusional BS aside, looking at some of the lists of the guitars that LTGers own, especially the more valuable ones,...are played and enjoyed. At least I hope they are. Though, can you imagine what Grot's annual string budget must be?

That B-50 on your roster. When you acquired it, some of the rational behind it was generated by something beyond its utilitarian use? They didn't make that many....they're the biggest production Guild made, and I imagine that when you go to a Jam or Gig the room gets real quiet when you take it out of its' immense case. I'm not a bass player, have little interest in becoming one....but I'd think about getting a B-50 (or B-30) just to bring it out once a week and play the intro to Cream's Badge. If I bought it at a reasonable price, I personally could justify that kind of folly. Be more fun that three hundred shares of Universal Widget?

If you have to gently fool yourself (or your significant other...) into believing that it's an "investment", .....so be it. I'd still rather have a guitar that I can play, depreciation aside,
than an ingot.

David

 

[fronobulax]

That B-50 on your roster. When you acquired it, some of the rational behind it was generated by something beyond its utilitarian use?

The only reason I was looking to upgrade from a B-4 was utilitarian. That said, the fact that it is a wonderful "object" did turn out to be a major selling point - as in selling the upgrade to Mrs. Fro. Which reminds me, I did agree to sell the B-4, or at least put it on the market...

 

[Dadaist]

That B-50 on your roster. When you acquired it, some of the rational behind it was generated by something beyond its utilitarian use?

The only reason I was looking to upgrade from a B-4 was utilitarian. That said, the fact that it is a wonderful "object" did turn out to be a major selling point - as in selling the upgrade to Mrs. Fro. Which reminds me, I did agree to sell the B-4, or at least put it on the market...

Yes,....but what an object.

Imagine three Marketing Guys from Guild, hundred year old, noisy, crowded Irish bar,..near the Shop, sitting in one of those worn...red leather booths....Red Socks game on the old Black and White over the back bar, sound turned off..... peanut shells littering the floor.... drinking Beer and a Bump....on a sweltering, Friday afternoon in July......ceiling fan just barely moving the air thick with cigarette smoke.

After the fourth round...out of nowhere someone pipes up..,

"...Hey,.Stevie....what they gonna do with those F612 body molds...toss...'em?.."

"...Yeah...why?.."

Scribbles notes on a napkin: "...Got an idea for a bass.....a real big bass..."

David